Even though there’s still plenty of dust that needs to settle, I wanted to offer some initial thoughts on tonight’s game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning.
Anyone who thinks Kyle Dubas or Sheldon Keefe need to be fired or removed after Saturday night’s game seven loss is just plain wrong.
They did everything that they possibly could have done with this team; it’s the players themselves that are to blame.
Although there will be more than a handful of upset fans who believe that the team’s management should be fired and the team ripped apart, those would be among the worst decisions the Toronto Maple Leafs could make – even if that was always going to be the narrative had the team not made the second round of the playoffs. To completely blow up a team that came within two goals of eliminating the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions would be incredibly poor decision making. In fact, I would go so far as to call it disastrous.
Yes, on Saturday night the Maple Leafs lost yet another round one playoff matchup, but it wasn’t without a valiant effort.
The Leafs threw everything they had at the Tampa Bay Lightning in a very tight game, but unfortunately it was the same Leafs’ forwards that continue to go quiet when their team needs them the most.
Now the same could be said about the Lightning considering their scoring was done by trade deadline acquisition and career third liner Nick Paul. The big difference though, is that Paul doesn’t get paid $40.46 million per year, which is the total of what Auston Matthews ($11.64M), John Tavares ($11M), Mitchell Marner($10.9M) and William Nylander ($6.92M) were paid this past season.
Paul made the Leafs pay twice in game seven, first with a late goal to close out the first period, and then with the game winning goal in the final five minutes of the second period. Both goals were Paul’s first two career NHL playoff goals, proving Tampa’s deadline day decision to be just what they needed.
“No matter what the score is, we always like our chances,” Paul said at ice level to Sportsnet’s Kyle Bukauskas after Saturday’s victory.
If the Maple Leafs are looking to make changes this off-season, these changes should be at ice level, most importantly within their D-core and bottom six forwards. (If they want to throw in a true number one goalie as well, I’m sure fans wouldn’t mind.)
Addressing those needs is most certainly going to mean freeing up cap space and this might mean finally cutting ties with one of those outrageously bad earlier mentioned contracts.
If it were up to me, I’d be starting with Mitch Marner.
Why, you ask, should the Maple Leafs trade one of their most offensively skilled forwards, especially when he was so instrumental in the success of Auston Matthews this past season? Well, for that exact reason.
According to CapFriendly, Marner’s contact also has No-Movement-Clauses for the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons, the final two of his current deal with the Leafs.
Having a NMC upcoming would theoretically give an acquiring team stability and comfortability in keeping the young talent locked up for at least the first two years of a trade.
He’s going to be able to fetch the most on the market when it comes to the return package, and the fact that the 25-year-old still has plenty of upside when it comes to his abilities and his age.
Unfortunately, the team is probably stuck with that ugly $11M/year that they owe Tavares for the next three seasons.
But they could look to move on from Nylander in the upcoming season as the talented 26-year-old has only two years left on his $6.962M/year contract.
As far as the jobs of Keefe and Dubas are concerned, I would say with confidence that both gentlemen will have a job after the weekend and well into next season.
To fire either one of them, or even Brendan Shanahan, wouldn’t be the right thing to do considering how close this team just came to overcoming their first-round playoff demons.
Had they been blown out or had the series not gone the distance then maybe those conversations would be had, but given the team’s fight and effort this season, outside of some minor tweaks on the ice, everyone should remain calm and employed throughout the off-season.
Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Lightning for advancing to the Eastern Conference semi-finals for yet another season. May the odds be in your favour for a three-peat.
Andrew Stuetz